Your weekly fundamental view 2016.02.29

Februari 29, 2016 09:23

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Need to know

It's Non-Farm Payrolls week again and they are accompanied by an Australian interest rate decision and plenty of European macro data releases.

Coming up

On Tuesday 1 March we have the Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate decision. Currently at 2%, Aussie rates are under pressure from regional easing in China and Japan. Why should traders care? Interest rates are a key driver of Forex prices and a cut could weaken the Aussie dollar. Watch AUD/USD support 0.7024: resistance 0.7275

Wednesday 2 March sees Eurozone PPI for January released. The Producer Price Index is a measure of factory gate inflation. The YoY figure has been declining since Autumn 2013. Why should traders care? Factory gate inflation sheds light on corporate pricing power and is a key input in any ECB decisions about interest rates and QE. Watch EURUSD support 1.4180: resistance 1.4442

US Non_Farm Payrolls for February are released on Friday 4 March. This monthly update on employment saw job creation decline in January to 151k from December's 292K. Forecast to be at 190k in Feb. Why should traders care? Employment reports can influence the Fed and US interest rates. They are seen as barometer for US economic growth. Watch US 10 year note support 1.0810: resistance 1.1033

Chart to watch: German Bund four hour chart

Risk off assets such as bonds have continued to appreciate during 2016. The Bund has made a so called double top in February, circa 166.16, but has yet to move beyond this. With much Eurozone data due this week, we may test this level for a third time.